Talk:2006–07 Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone season/March

March

Week 1

18S.JACOB

94S.INVEST

14.8S 117.5E 15 kt, west of 92S. – Chacor 15:19, 2 March 2007 (UTC)

JTWC 030800:
AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.9S 117.1 E,
APPROXIMATELY 395 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA.
RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION PER-
SISTING OVER A TIGHT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER ALSO EVIDENT IN A
020549Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE. THIS DISTURBANCE IS NORTH OF THE NEAR-
EQUATORIAL UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN AN ZONE OF FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT BUT MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTI-
MATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO UNFAVORABLY HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
- SpLoT // 09:31, 3 March 2007 (UTC)

Perth TCWC - Tropical Low

Tropical Low
14.3ºS 114.8ºE -- 1000 hPa

730 km north northwest of Karratha moving west-northwest at 4 knots.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
=====================================
Tuesday= moderate
Wednesday= moderate
Thursday = low
-- グリフオーザー 05:54, 5 March 2007 (UTC)

Low now 25 kts 998 hpa, low may form into a tropical cyclone in 18 to 24 hours - グリフオーザー 09:38, 5 March 2007 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Jacob

12.8ºS 108.3ºE -- 45 knots 988 hPa
Cyclone Watch for Christmas Island - グリフオーザー 01:24, 7 March 2007 (UTC)

Now Tropical Cyclone 18S from JTWC. --Coredesat 03:54, 7 March 2007 (UTC)

Up to 55 kt from the TCWC, cyclone warning for Christmas Island. --Coredesat 07:54, 7 March 2007 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Cyclone Jacob

70 knots 956 hPa, Cyclone Warning continues for Christmas Is. - グリフオーザー 22:53, 7 March 2007 (UTC)

Set to make landfall close to where George hit, weakened due to supressed poleward outflow and high vertical wind shear. - SpLoT // 15:20, 10 March 2007 (UTC)

Now weakened to a Category 1.....fortunately. RaNdOm26 05:56, 11 March 2007 (UTC)

Week 2

19S.INDLALA [12R]

95S.INVEST

11.7ºS 66.4ºE - 15 knots 1006 hPa - グリフオーザー 02:54, 7 March 2007 (UTC)

Now 13.1°S 65.2°E. - SpLoT // 13:21, 9 March 2007 (UTC)

Getting more organized, POOR from JTWC 09/18Z. - SpLoT // 03:02, 10 March 2007 (UTC)

JTWC 10/1230Z:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.8S
65.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.0S 62.0E, APPROXIMATELY 770 NM
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SAT-
ELLITE IMAGERY AND A 100942Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT AN
IMPROVING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTION
FLARING NEAR AND OVER THE CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THAT THIS DISTURBANCE LIES UNDER THE DIFFLUENT REGION OF A 200 MB
ANTICYCLONE, WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. BECAUSE THE LLCC HAS
IMPROVED AND CONVECTION IS FLARING NEAR THE CENTER, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
- SpLoT // 15:22, 10 March 2007 (UTC)

Perturbation Tropicale 12R

sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts up to 35 knots, 1000 hPa pressure. - グリフオーザー 04:36, 11 March 2007 (UTC)

TCFA issued at 10/23Z. M-F expects it to develop into TS. - SpLoT // 04:48, 11 March 2007 (UTC)

huh? why is this 08R when this is the 12th system issued by Reunion? - グリフオーザー 05:10, 11 March 2007 (UTC)

Sorry for the confusion. My mistake. - SpLoT // 06:04, 11 March 2007 (UTC)

Dépression Tropicale 12R

TD from M-F. SpLoT // 16:41, 11 March 2007 (UTC)

Tempête Tropicale Modérée Indlala

TS from M-F, TCFA continued from JTWC. And that's I-N-D-L-A-D-A, not I-N-D-L-A-L-A. - SpLoT // 00:26, 12 March 2007 (UTC)

JTWC TC 19S Indlala. I've emailed Meteo France for clarification, since they're now calling it "Indlala" too but the map says "Indlada" and SAB says "Indlada". – Chacor 03:45, 12 March 2007 (UTC)

I-N-D-L-A -_- A. India? Indala? Indlalalalalalala? Indadla? Inlada? Indlanda? Idnlada? Indlaya? Indlaжa? SpLoT // 03:51, 12 March 2007 (UTC)

There seems to be some confusion: [1] -- RattleMan 04:09, 12 March 2007 (UTC)

MetFrance have replied (about 30 hours after I sent the email! Heh) - the correct name is "Indlala", with an "l". – Chacor 08:44, 13 March 2007 (UTC)

Forte Tempête Tropicale Indlala

50 knots with gusts up to 70 knots, 984 hPa - グリフオーザー 18:58, 12 March 2007 (UTC)

Cyclone Tropical Indlala

65 kt, 965 hPa, forecast calls for quick intensification to 95 kt in 36 hours. --Coredesat 06:23, 13 March 2007 (UTC)

Up to 95 kt and 954 hPa now, with continued rapid intensification expected. This could be a monster when (I should say if) it hits Madagascar. bob rulz 05:22, 14 March 2007 (UTC)

It looks like a monster already (though only at 100 kts). --IrfanFaiz 11:40, 14 March 2007 (UTC)

Intense Tropical Cyclone Indlala

NRL now says 115 kt, 927mbar. MF just upgraded it at 940 hPa to an intense TC. – Chacor 12:50, 14 March 2007 (UTC)

What a monster, bad for Madagascar. --IrfanFaiz 13:50, 14 March 2007 (UTC)

20 nm diameter eye earlier today.. JTWC 125 kts, 919 mb. RSMC Reunion 95 kts, 935 hPa. - グリフオーザー 01:05, 15 March 2007 (UTC)

Eye crossing inland now. --IrfanFaiz 02:35, 15 March 2007 (UTC)

Mass of clouds over Madagascar now. --IrfanFaiz 00:12, 17 March 2007 (UTC)

96P.INVEST

21.5°S 167.0°W, 25kt 1002mb. High vertical wind shear competing with good outflow, designated POOR by JTWC 09/06Z. - SpLoT // 13:21, 9 March 2007 (UTC)

RSMC Nadi Tropical Disturbance

Tropical Disturbance with TC potential low to moderate. - SpLoT // 13:24, 9 March 2007 (UTC)

Dissipated according to JTWC. - SpLoT // 06:36, 10 March 2007 (UTC)

Poof. - SpLoT // 04:52, 11 March 2007 (UTC)

Week 3

97P.INVEST

15.1°S 138.6°E. - SpLoT // 13:21, 9 March 2007 (UTC)

gone - グリフオーザー 04:39, 11 March 2007 (UTC)

98S.INVEST [13R]

98S.INVEST

12.8ºS 69.8ºE - 15 knots, 1006 hPa - グリフオーザー 04:39, 11 March 2007 (UTC)

POOR. – Chacor 08:45, 13 March 2007 (UTC)

Zone Perturbée 13-20062007

20 knots with wind gusts up to 30 knots, 1005 hPa - グリフオーザー 20:44, 13 March 2007 (UTC)

Perturbation Tropicale 13R

25 knots with wind gusts up to 35 knots, 1001 hPa - グリフオーザー 07:55, 15 March 2007 (UTC)

XT/dissipated from JTWC and M-F, though NRL/FNMOC still carrying it. - SpLoT // 07:39, 17 March 2007 (UTC)

99P.INVEST

12.0ºS 148.0ºE - 15 knots - グリフオーザー 06:15, 14 March 2007 (UTC)

gone - グリフオーザー 01:06, 15 March 2007 (UTC)

Week 4

90P.INVEST [12F]

90P.INVEST

12.3°S 175.8°E. - SpLoT // 13:18, 19 March 2007 (UTC)

POOR. - SpLoT // 08:32, 20 March 2007 (UTC)

upgraded to Fair by JTWC - グリフオーザー 23:09, 21 March 2007 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 12F

1005 hPa, potential forming into tropical cyclone is low to moderate. - グリフオーザー 00:50, 22 March 2007 (UTC)

12F? The last one we have is 09F. Where'd 10F and 11F go? – Chacor 02:13, 22 March 2007 (UTC)

I think we should hold off on adding it to the article for now, until this is cleared up (Core is emailing Nadi). – Chacor 02:17, 22 March 2007 (UTC)

Was wondering the same thing, unless they numbered Odette and another Tropical Low from Brisbane that entered their area. - グリフオーザー 02:34, 22 March 2007 (UTC)

Email reply from RSMC Nadi: "Just to let you know that 10F and 11F were short-lived systems and may therefore not gained much attention. The numbering is therefore in order." --Coredesat 04:26, 22 March 2007 (UTC)

I can't find tropical disturbance summaries that mention 10F and 11F - Chacor e-mailed Gary Padgett, who might know more. I'm personally going to hold off on adding 12F for a little bit until we figure this out, but someone else can add it if they want. --Coredesat 04:39, 22 March 2007 (UTC)

Gale Warnings issued for this depression, the number isn't posted this time. - グリフオーザー 03:51, 22 March 2007 (UTC)

Looks ok in sat images, No TCFA yet from JTWC. --IrfanFaiz 05:15, 22 March 2007 (UTC)

TCFAs are only issued when potential is "GOOD". It's still "FAIR" from JTWC. – Chacor 05:35, 22 March 2007 (UTC)

TCFA now issued. – Chacor 09:40, 22 March 2007 (UTC)

LLCC exposed and being sheared, the RSMC Nadi has issued its final tropical disturbance advisory. - グリフオーザー 02:29, 23 March 2007 (UTC)

Downgraded to poor by JTWC. - SpLoT // 10:06, 24 March 2007 (UTC)

91S.INVEST

9.7°S 89.9°E. - SpLoT // 12:58, 20 March 2007 (UTC)

"99S"

Only on SSD/SAB, this subtropical cyclone was noticed by Chacor on the 18th and then was given a ST2.5 classification at 9Z today: [2] -- RattleMan 16:06, 20 March 2007 (UTC)

Another ST2.5 at 1400Z, 35.6S 37.1E. --Coredesat 17:24, 20 March 2007 (UTC)

Actually, four consecutive ST2.5s already. - SpLoT // 12:52, 21 March 2007 (UTC)

SAB has issued final bulletin ST1.5. – Chacor 02:53, 22 March 2007 (UTC)

20S.KARA

92S.INVEST

16.4S 120.6E - 15 kts 1006 hPa

Perth Tropical Low

16.0ºS 120.8ºE - 25 knots 1004 hPa
A CYCLONE WATCH has been declared for coastal areas from Onslow to Cape Leveque. - グリフオーザー 08:12, 24 March 2007 (UTC)

FAIR. - SpLoT // 10:06, 24 March 2007 (UTC)

TCFA issued. - SpLoT // 04:23, 25 March 2007 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Kara

35 kts with gusts up to 50 kts, 990 hPa
A CYCLONE WATCH is current for CATEGORY 1 tropical cyclone for coastal areas from Onslow to Broome. - グリフオーザー 07:30, 25 March 2007 (UTC)

Intensifying fast, Aus Cat 2 now. - SpLoT // 16:30, 25 March 2007 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Cyclone Kara

Now a severe tropical cyclone from BOM, 65 kt/966 hPa. --Coredesat 00:55, 26 March 2007 (UTC)

getting very close to Category 4 Cyclone..

currently 80 knots gusts up to 115 knots. Central pressure of 950 hPa. - グリフオーザー 07:12, 26 March 2007 (UTC)

21P.BECKY

93P.INVEST

12.5S 157.5E - 15 kts 1006 hPa - グリフオーザー 08:14, 24 March 2007 (UTC)

POOR. - SpLoT // 07:41, 25 March 2007 (UTC)

FAIR. - SpLoT // 16:30, 25 March 2007 (UTC)

Brisbane Tropical Low

A tropical low 1001 hpa near 12S 157.5E

low may form into a tropical cyclone in the next few days. - グリフオーザー 16:48, 25 March 2007 (UTC)

997 hPa Tropical Low 12.0S 160.2E
Gale Warning issued. the low is moving east at 9 knots. - グリフオーザー 23:37, 25 March 2007 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 13F

Tropical Low is in RSMC Nadi AoR. - グリフオーザー 00:08, 26 March 2007 (UTC)

Special Weather Advisory in Vanuatu concerning TD13F - グリフオーザー 18:51, 26 March 2007 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Becky

40 knots, 990 hPa - グリフオーザー 22:19, 26 March 2007 (UTC)

Intensifying, nearly 10-min 65 kt, curving to sweep through Vanuatu and New Caledonia. - SpLoT // 15:19, 27 March 2007 (UTC)

Week 5

22S.JAYA [14R]

94S.INVEST

12.4ºS 85.5ºE - 15 knots - グリフオーザー 23:41, 25 March 2007 (UTC)

JTWC 0300am UTC - グリフオーザー 08:40, 28 March 2007 (UTC)
13.0ºS 77.5ºE, Partly exposed llcc with deep convection and weak banding developing over the western quadrant. Upper level analysis shows an anticyclone east of the center with diffluent easterly flow over the area with weak vertical wind shear. Maximum sustained winds of 15 to 20 knots with a sea level pressure estimated at 1005 mb. The potential of this disturbance to develop into a significant tropical cyclone is poor.

Consolidating low level circulation center, Maximum sustained winds 20 to 25 knots. Disturbance upgraded to fair. - グリフオーザー 03:03, 29 March 2007 (UTC)

Zone Perturbée 14R

Now a zone perturbée, numbered 14R. Per M-F 12Z: 12.9°S 69.0°E, 20kt 1004 hPa. - SpLoT // 15:48, 29 March 2007 (UTC)

TCFA issued - グリフオーザー 02:04, 30 March 2007 (UTC)

Depression Tropicale

30 knots, 999 hPa - グリフオーザー 06:56, 30 March 2007 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone 22S

Designated 22S, first warning issued 09Z. Forecast to reach 80kt strength in 48h. - SpLoT // 13:47, 30 March 2007 (UTC)

Tempête Tropicale Modérée Jaya

Named by Mauritius. - SpLoT // 13:47, 30 March 2007 (UTC)

Cyclone Tropical Jaya

(10 min) 65 knots with gusts up to 90 knots, 970 hPa - グリフオーザー 00:37, 31 March 2007 (UTC)

Cyclone Tropical Intense Jaya

Rapid intensification. - SpLoT // 12:41, 31 March 2007 (UTC)

Starting to weaken now, headed for northeastern tip of Madagascar. - ζpLoT // 13:13, 2 April 2007 (UTC)

Beginning to regenerate in the Mozambique Channel. - ζpLoT // 09:14, 5 April 2007 (UTC)

JTWC: 930am UTC:
An area of convection near 14.3S 42.0E or 405 nm west-northwest of Antananarivo, Madagascar. The remnants of Jaya is beginning to re-organize in the Mozambique Channel. Imagery shows increased deep convection over the low level circulation center with 20 to 25 knots unflagged winds close to the center. The system is less than 100 nm from the Mozambique coastline, but it may strengthen into a tropical cyclone prior to landfall.
Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 20 to 30 knots with a center pressure of 1002 mb
The potential of this disturbance to develop into a significant tropical cyclone is GOOD.
- グリフオーザー 09:45, 5 April 2007 (UTC)

Perturbation Tropicale ex-Jaya

Met-France has restarted intermittent advisories on 14R. – Chacor 12:24, 5 April 2007 (UTC)

JTWC re-issued TCFA at 05/2130. Location 15.6S 41.3E, 385 nm WNW of Antananarivo. Deepest convection concentration on eastern quadrant of LLCC. System located less than 75 nm from Mozambique coastline, and convection on western quadrant is being affected by terrain. Tracking SSW under influence of ridge anchored over southern Madagascar, expected to track down the Mozambique Channel. Winds 25-30 kt, pressure 1002 mb. - SpLoT // 03:40, 6 April 2007 (UTC)

POOR now, JTWC says due to shear and a weakening supporting anticyclone. - SpLoT // 14:09, 6 April 2007 (UTC)

Made a comeback with short term rapid intensification. M-F issuing advisories again. - SpLoT // 13:01, 7 April 2007 (UTC)

FAIR from JTWC at 14Z. - SpLoT // 16:12, 7 April 2007 (UTC)

Gone again from M-F, JTWC notes that it's unclassifiable with the Dvorak technique. --Coredesat 08:38, 8 April 2007 (UTC)

95S.INVEST

10.1ºS 110.1ºE - 15 knots - グリフオーザー 23:41, 25 March 2007 (UTC)

gone earlier this week. - グリフオーザー 08:41, 28 March 2007 (UTC)

96P.INVEST

16.5ºS 159.0ºW - 15 kts 1006 hPa - グリフオーザー 00:12, 30 March 2007 (UTC)

97S.INVEST

8.0ºS 87.0ºE - 15 kts - グリフオーザー 03:19, 30 March 2007 (UTC)

Perth notes a weak low which may develop further in the next few days - グリフオーザー 05:18, 30 March 2007 (UTC)

POOR from JTWC. - ζpLoT // 13:16, 2 April 2007 (UTC)

Gone. - SpLoT // 13:04, 8 April 2007 (UTC)