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|Formed=July 2
|Formed=July 2
|Dissipated=July 3
|Dissipated=July 3
|Image=Colin 2022-07-02 1600Z.jpg
|Image=Colin 2022-07-02 0715Z.jpg
|Track=Colin 2022 track.png
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Revision as of 06:00, 7 July 2022

2022 Atlantic hurricane season
Season summary map
Seasonal boundaries
First system formedJune 5, 2022
Last system dissipatedSeason ongoing
Strongest storm
NameAlex
 • Maximum winds70 mph (110 km/h)
(1-minute sustained)
 • Lowest pressure984 mbar (hPa; 29.06 inHg)
Seasonal statistics
Total depressions3
Total storms3
Hurricanes0
Major hurricanes
(Cat. 3+)		0
Total fatalities9 total
Total damageUnknown
Related articles
Atlantic hurricane seasons
2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024

The 2022 Atlantic hurricane season is the current cycle of the annual tropical cyclone season in the Atlantic Ocean in the Northern Hemisphere. The season officially began on June 1, and will end on November 30. These dates, adopted by convention, historically describe the period in each year when most subtropical or tropical cyclogenesis occurs in the Atlantic Ocean.[1] This year's first named storm, Tropical Storm Alex, developed five days after the start of the season, making this the first season since 2014 not to have a pre-season named storm.[2] About a month later, Tropical Storm Bonnie formed and quickly made landfall along the Costa Rica–Nicaragua border. It then crossed over into the Pacific basin a day later, becoming the first to survive the crossover from the Atlantic to the Pacific since Hurricane Otto in 2016. The same day as Bonnie's crossover, Tropical Storm Colin unexpectedly formed along coastal South Carolina. It quickly weakened and dissipated the next day after moving into coastal North Carolina.

Seasonal forecasts

Predictions of tropical activity in the 2022 season
Source Date Named
storms 		Hurricanes Major
hurricanes 		Ref
Average (1991–2020) 14.4 7.2 3.2 [3]
Record high activity 30 15 7† [4]
Record low activity 4 2† 0† [4]
CSU December 9, 2021 13–16 6–8 2–3 [5]
TSR December 10, 2021 18 8 3 [6]
TSR April 6, 2022 18 8 4 [7]
CSU April 7, 2022 19 9 4 [8]
TWC April 14, 2022 20 8 4 [9]
UA April 14, 2022 14 7 3 [10]
NCSU April 20, 2022 17–21 7–9 3–5 [11]
PSU May 9, 2022 11-19 N/A N/A [12]
UKMO* May 23, 2022 18 9 4 [13]
NOAA May 24, 2022 14–21 6–10 3–6 [14]
TSR May 31, 2022 18 8 4 [15]
CSU June 2, 2022 20 10 5 [16]
TWC June 17, 2022 21 9 4 [17]
UA June 20, 2022 15 7 3 [18]
Actual activity
 3 0 0
* June–November only
† Most recent of several such occurrences. (See all)

In advance of, and during, each hurricane season, several forecasts of hurricane activity are issued by national meteorological services, scientific agencies, and noted hurricane experts. These include forecasters from the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)'s Climate Prediction Center, Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), the United Kingdom's Met Office (UKMO), and Philip J. Klotzbach, William M. Gray and their associates at Colorado State University (CSU). The forecasts include weekly and monthly changes in significant factors that help determine the number of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes within a particular year. According to NOAA and CSU, the average Atlantic hurricane season between 1991 and 2020 contained roughly 14 tropical storms, seven hurricanes, three major hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index of 72–111 units.[19] Broadly speaking, ACE is a measure of the power of a tropical or subtropical storm multiplied by the length of time it existed. It is only calculated for full advisories on specific tropical and subtropical systems reaching or exceeding wind speeds of 39 mph (63 km/h).[3] NOAA typically categorizes a season as above-average, average, or below-average based on the cumulative ACE index, but the number of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes within a hurricane season is sometimes also considered.[3]

Pre-season forecasts

On December 9, 2021, CSU issued an extended range forecast for the 2022 hurricane season, giving a 40% chance of near-average activity with 13–16 named storms, 6–8 hurricanes, 2–3 major hurricanes, and an ACE index of about 130 units. The forecast also gave a 25% chance that the ACE Index would end up being around 170 units, and a 25% likelihood the likelihood that the index would end up around 80.[5] TSR also issued an extended range forecast on December 10, 2021.[6] It predicted overall near-average tropical activity with its ACE index, however, anticipating 18 tropical storms, 8 hurricanes and 3 intense hurricanes to form during the season. One of their factors was the expectation of a neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation condition by the third quarter of 2022. However, they said that this outlook had "large uncertainties".[6]

On April 7, CSU issued their first extended range seasonal forecast for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, predicting well above-average activity, with 19 named storms, 9 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes and an ACE index of 160 units. Their factors supporting an active hurricane season included above average-sea surface temperatures in the subtropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, and a cool neutral ENSO or weak La Niña pattern, corresponding to a low chance of an El Niño.[20] On April 14, 2022, University of Arizona (UA) issued its seasonal prediction for a slightly above-average hurricane season, with 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, three major hurricanes, and an ACE index of 129 units.[10] North Carolina State University (NCSU) made its prediction for the season on April 20, calling for an above-average season with 17 to 21 named storms, 7 to 9 hurricanes, and 3 to 5 major hurricanes.[11]

On May 23, UKMO issued their own forecast for the 2022 season, predicting an above average season with 18 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, with a 70% chance that each of these statistics will fall between 13 and 23, 6 and 12, and 2 and 6, respectively.[13] The following day, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issued their forecasts for the season, predicting a 65% chance of above-average activity and 25% chance for below-average activity, with 14–21 named storms, 6–10 hurricanes, and 3–6 major hurricanes.[14]

Mid-season forecasts

On June 2, CSU updated their extended range seasonal forecast, increasing the amount of tropical cyclones to 20 named storms, 10 hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes, and an overall ACE index of 180 units. This was done after later analysis of lower chances of an El Niño during the season, as well as a warmer than average tropical Atlantic.[21] On June 20, 2022, University of Arizona (UA) updated its seasonal prediction, which is very similar to its April prediction, with 15 named storms, seven hurricanes, three major hurricanes, and an ACE index of 131 units.[18]

Seasonal summary

See also: Timeline of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season
Hurricane Bonnie (2022)Tropical Storm Alex (2022)Saffir–Simpson scale

This season's ACE index as of 21:00 UTC on July 2, as calculated by Colorado State University using data from the NHC, is approximately 2.9 units.[22] This number represents sum of the squares of the maximum sustained wind speed (knots) for all named storms while they are at least tropical storm intensity, divided by 10,000. Therefore, tropical depressions are not included.[23]

Systems

Tropical Storm Alex

Tropical storm (SSHWS)
 
DurationJune 5 – June 6
Peak intensity70 mph (110 km/h) (1-min);
984 mbar (hPa)
Main article: Tropical Storm Alex (2022)

On May 31, a large low-pressure area developed near the Yucatán Peninsula, partially related to the Pacific basin remnants of Hurricane Agatha interacting with an upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico.[24] The low moved eastward over the Yucatán Peninsula, producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the peninsula and northwestern Caribbean Sea on June 1–2.[25] Due to the threat the developing system posed to Cuba, the Florida Keys and South Florida, the National Hurricane Center initiated advisories on it, designating it as Potential Tropical Cyclone One at 21:00 UTC on June 2.[26] As it proceeded northeastward over the Gulf of Mexico, the disturbance was being buffeted by 25–35 mph (35–55 km/h) southwesterly shear, which limited its ability to intensify. On June 3, two Hurricane Hunters missions into the system found deep convection ongoing near and to the east of the estimated center, but no conclusive evidence of a closed circulation. The second flight also reported that what had appeared to be the center now presented as an elongated trough with several embedded points of vorticity.[27][28] On the morning of June 4, radar data and surface observations indicated that the broad and poorly-defined center of the disturbance had spread onshore in southwestern Florida.[29] After moving into the Atlantic later that day, the system's circulation became better defined,[30] and at 06:00 UTC on June 5, it finally established a well-defined center with sufficient convection and was given the name Alex.[31] Late that day, Alex attained its peak intensity with winds of 70 mph (110 km/h) and a minimum central pressure of 984 mbar (29.06 inHg) as it passed west of Bermuda.[32] Alex transitioned into a post-tropical cyclone at 21:00 UTC on June 6.[33]

While a potential tropical storm, what would later become Alex produced significant rainfall across western Cuba and South Florida, which resulted in flash flooding across both regions. During a 30 hour period on June 2–3, Paso Real de San Diego in the province of Pinar del Río recorded about 12 inches (301 mm) of rain. Playa Girón in Matanzas received over 8 inches (193 mm) and Santiago de las Vegas in Havana received nearly 7 inches (171 mm) of rain during the same period.[34] There were four storm related deaths in Cuba,[35][36] and numerous homes and bridges were damaged by the flooding.[37] Between 7:00 a.m. local time on June 3, and 10:00 p.m. the following day, Miami saw just over 11 inches (28 cm) of rain, while Hollywood had just over 9 inches (23 cm). Naples, near where the storm's estimated center came onshore, also had close to 9 inches (23 cm).[36] Across Broward County and Miami-Dade County, there were a combined 3,543 power outages.[38]

Tropical Storm Bonnie

Tropical storm (SSHWS)
 
DurationJuly 1 – July 2 (Exited basin)
Peak intensity50 mph (85 km/h) (1-min);
997 mbar (hPa)
Main article: Hurricane Bonnie (2022)

A tropical wave moved off the northwest coast of Africa south of 10°N on June 23, producing a large but disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms.[39][40] The low-level wind circulation associated with the system became better defined[41] and thunderstorm activity increased[42] on June 25–26, as it moved along a west to west-northwesterly track toward the southernmost Windward Islands. A NOAA Hurricane Hunters mission on June 27, reported tropical-storm-strength winds on the north side of the disturbance, but indicated that it had not yet shown a well-defined closed circulation. Although it could not yet be classified as a tropical cyclone, due to the threat the system posed to the Lesser Antilles, the National Hurricane Center initiated advisories on it as Potential Tropical Cyclone Two later that same day.[43][44] Later, after moving through the southern Windward Islands late on June 28, the disturbance sped west at 26 mph (43 km/h) toward the coast of South America.[45] Over the next couple of days, the system passed just to the north of Venezuela, where it was hindered from developing a distinct low-level circulation due to its fast forward speed and its interaction with land. Yet all the while it generated sustained winds of tropical-storm strength.[46] As the disturbance moved toward Central America on the morning of July 1, it became sufficiently organized to be classified as a tropical storm and was given the name Bonnie.[47] Embedded in a low-shear and warm SST environment, Bonnie began to steadily intensify.[48] At 03:00 UTC on July 2, Bonnie made landfall near the Costa Rica–Nicaragua border at its peak intensity within the Atlantic with sustained winds of 50 mph (85 km/h).[49] Bonnie then crossed Central America and exited into the Eastern Pacific basin 12 hours later, marking the first time a tropical cyclone survived the crossover from the Atlantic to the Pacific since Hurricane Otto in 2016.[50][51]

Bonnie and its precursor disturbance produced gusty winds and heavy rainfall as it tracked through the southern Caribbean Sea.[46] In Nicaragua, authorities reported four deaths in relation to the storm.[52]

Tropical Storm Colin

Tropical storm (SSHWS)
 
DurationJuly 2 – July 3
Peak intensity40 mph (65 km/h) (1-min);
1011 mbar (hPa)

An area of low pressure formed offshore of Savannah, Georgia, on the morning of July 1, and moved inland across coastal South Carolina later that same day. During this time the system unexpectedly developed with persistent deep convection forming close to the center and quickly becoming well organized.[53] On July 2, at 09:00 UTC, Tropical Storm Colin formed about 50 mi (80 km) southwest of Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, with sustained winds of 40 mph (65 km/h) and an estimated central pressure of 1011 mbar (29.9 inHg).[54] The storm became increasingly disorganized later that day, with its circulation becoming elongated from north-northeast to south-southwest.[55] By 03:00 UTC on July 3, after passing Wilmington, North Carolina, Colin had weakened to a tropical depression.[56] The system dissipated over eastern North Carolina nine hours later.[57]

Upon formation, a Tropical Storm Warning was issued from the South Santee River, in South Carolina, to Duck, North Carolina, including Pamlico Sound.[54] Most of Colin's heavy rains and strong winds remained out over the Atlantic due to its proximity to the coast and northwesterly shear of around 25 mph (35 km/h).[58] Rainfall totals inland ranged from 2–3 in (51–76 mm) in parts of the Midlands of South Carolina to near 7 in (180 mm) near Charleston, South Carolina.[59] A Fourth of July weekend event in Charleston was cancelled because of flooding at the event site, as was a festival in Southport, North Carolina.[60] Winds from Colin's remnants produced high surf along the North Carolina coast on July 3, and one man drowned at a beach in Oak Island.[61][62]

Storm names

Main articles: Tropical cyclone naming, History of tropical cyclone naming, and List of historic tropical cyclone names

The following list of names will be used for named storms that form in the North Atlantic in 2022. Retired names, if any, will be announced by the World Meteorological Organization in the spring of 2023. The names not retired from this list will be used again in the 2028 season.[63] This is the same list used in the 2016 season, with the exceptions of Martin and Owen, which replaced Matthew and Otto, respectively.[64]

  • Alex
  • Bonnie
  • Colin
  • Danielle (unused)
  • Earl (unused)
  • Fiona (unused)
  • Gaston (unused)
  • Hermine (unused)
  • Ian (unused)
  • Julia (unused)
  • Karl (unused)
  • Lisa (unused)
  • Martin (unused)
  • Nicole (unused)
  • Owen (unused)
  • Paula (unused)
  • Richard (unused)
  • Shary (unused)
  • Tobias (unused)
  • Virginie (unused)
  • Walter (unused)

Season effects

This is a table of all of the storms that have formed in the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season. It includes their duration, names, landfall(s)–denoted by bold location names – damages, and death totals. Deaths in parentheses are additional and indirect (an example of an indirect death would be a traffic accident), but were still related to that storm. Damage and deaths include totals while the storm was extratropical, a wave, or a low, and all of the damage figures are in 2022 USD.

Saffir–Simpson scale
TD TS C1 C2 C3 C4 C5
2022 North Atlantic tropical cyclone season statistics
Storm
name 		Dates active Storm category
at peak intensity 		Max 1-min
wind
mph (km/h) 		Min.
press.
(mbar) 		Areas affected Damage
(USD) 		Deaths Ref(s)
Alex June 5 – 6 Tropical storm 70 (110) 984 Yucatán Peninsula, Western Cuba, Florida, the Bahamas, Bermuda Unknown 4
Bonnie July 1 – 2 Tropical storm 50 (85) 997 Trinidad and Tobago, Grenada, Venezuela, ABC Islands, Colombia, Costa Rica, Nicaragua Unknown 4
Colin July 2 – 3 Tropical storm 40 (65) 1011 The Carolinas Minimal 1 [62]
Season aggregates
3 systems June 5 – Season ongoing   70 (110) 984 0 9  

See also

References

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  6. ^ a b c Saunders, Marc; Lea, Adam (December 10, 2021). "Extended Range Forecast for Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2022" (PDF). tropicalstormrisk.com. London, UK: University College London. Retrieved December 10, 2021.
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  51. ^ Hogsett, Wallace (July 2, 2022). Tropical Storm Bonnie Discussion Number 20 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved July 2, 2022.
  52. ^ "Reportan al menos cuatro muertos tras el paso de tormenta Bonnie en Nicaragua" [At least four deaths are reported after the passage of storm Bonnie in Nicaragua]. Infobae (in Spanish). Archived from the original on July 4, 2022. Retrieved July 4, 2022.
  53. ^ Berg, Robbie (July 2, 2022). Tropical Storm Colin Discussion Number 1 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved July 2, 2022.
  54. ^ a b Berg, Robbie (July 2, 2022). Tropical Storm Colin Advisory Number 1 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved July 2, 2022.
  55. ^ Cangialosi, John (July 2, 2022). Tropical Storm Colin Discussion Number 3 (Report). Miami Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved July 4, 2022.
  56. ^ Beven, Jack (July 2, 2022). Tropical Depression Colin Advisory Number 4 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved July 3, 2022.
  57. ^ Berg, Robbie (July 3, 2022). Remnants Of Colin Discussion Number 5 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved July 3, 2022.
  58. ^ Cangialosi, John (July 2, 2022). Tropical Storm Colin Discussion Number 2 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved July 4, 2022.
  59. ^ Smith, Cory (July 3, 2022). "Showers and Storms possible Sunday Afternoon". Columbia, South Carolina: WLTX. Retrieved July 4, 2022.
  60. ^ "Tropical Storm Colin threatens a wet weekend for Carolinas". Washington, North Carolina: WITN. Associated Press. July 2, 2022. Archived from the original on July 2, 2022. Retrieved July 3, 2022.
  61. ^ Puente, Nathaniel (July 3, 2022). "Hickory man drowns at North Carolina beach". Charlotte, North Carolina: WCNC. Retrieved July 5, 2022.
  62. ^ a b Davis, Corey (July 5, 2022). "The Tropics Come A-Colin". Raleigh, North Carolina: North Carolina State Climate Office. Retrieved July 5, 2022.
  63. ^ "Hurricane Names for the 2022 Hurricane Season". Dublin, New Hampshire: Yankee Publishing. December 6, 2021. Retrieved February 5, 2022.
  64. ^ "World Meteorological Organization retires storm names Matthew and Otto". Washington, D.C.: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. March 27, 2017. Retrieved February 5, 2022.
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